So You Think You Know The Delegate Count
While the pundits talk about the candidates being tied and focusing on the super delegates, it would be nice if they were all on the same page on the delegate count. The limited patience and attention span of the pundits who can’t wait for the remaining 11 states and territories to have their primaries are rushing the democratic party system of allowing all voters to be heard. And, while we’re at it, trying to figure our who the vice president will be is also very premature.
Remaining primaries and delegates:
March 11 – Mississippi 33 delegates
April 22 - Pennsylvania 158 delegates
May 3 - Guam 4 delegates
May 6 – Indiana 72 delegates
May 6 - North Carolina 158 delegates
May 13 -West Virginia 28 delegates
May 20 - Kentucky 51 delegates
May 20 -Oregon 52 delegates
June 3- Montana 16 delegates
June 3- South Dakota 15 delegates
June 7 -Puerto Rico 55 delegates
Trying to figure out the delegate count for Obama and Clinton depends on which news source or pundit you listen to. They all have different numbers;
CNN
Obama total delegates: 1,527
Pledged: 1,328
Superdelegates: 199
Clinton total delegates: 1,428
Pledged: 1,190
Superdelegates: 238
MSNBC
By the numbers below it appears that MSNBC is using pledged delegates only
Obama 1366
Clinton 1277
| State | Date | Delegates | Obama | Clinton | ||
| Total | - | 1588 | 1468 | |||
| Super Delegates | - | 795 | 210 | 245 | ||
| Pledged Delegates | - | 2654 | 1378 | 1223 | ||
“Pledged” Delegate Votes (FL, MI sanctioned) = Primaries only
Obama 1,370.5
Clinton 1,229.5
“Soft” Delegate Votes (FL, MI sanctioned) = Primaries and Caucuses
Obama 1,573.5
Clinton 1,473.5
NY Times
Obama 1,500.5
74.1% of the 2,025 needed
Clinton 1,394
68.8% of the 2,025 needed
Obama campaign website
Obama 1392
Clinton 1236
Clinton campaign website
Sorry but there is only a U.S. map with no delegate numbers listed. What’s up with that?
So what’s the correct number and who is really leading? Well that’s another confusing story. The numbers listed above are actually estimates by the pundits and the campaigns based on the percentage that a candidate won in state primaries and caucuses.
The caucus states including Texas, well that’s a whole different story. Caucus numbers for delegates are decided at the state convention which are usually held in June. Iowa will hold it’s State Convention in June and they may have more to say on their caucus numbers. During the Iowa caucus in January, they had several candidates to caucus for and one who received delegates was John Edwards. Edwards won’t be a viable candidate at the Iowa State Convention, so his delegates could go to Obama, Clinton, uncommitted or split.
Confused yet? Let’s look at Texas, while Clinton won the primary she technically did not win Texas since Obama is the projected winner in the caucus. Obama’s numbers from the caucus so far plus his primary delegates will put him three delegates ahead of Clinton. However, the caucus numbers won’t be official until the Texas State Convention in June.
Personally I plan on waiting for the numbers after all of the state conventions are over and all 50 Secretary of State certify the primary votes. Only then will we know what the true numbers are.
Remember the pundits have been wrong this entire primary season there is no reason to believe that they suddenly got a clue.
Filed under: Caucus, Clinton, Delegate Count, Democrat, Obama, Politics, Primaries, candidates
Does anyone really know how many there for each person, or do we leave it to the establishment and the establishment media to decide!
Larry:
I prefer to believe the certified votes from the Secretary of State, except Florida.
nytexan, thanks for this very useful post. This is truly an “apples and oranges” problem that I have been trying to ignore. I like your idea about the Secretaries of State. But it will try my patience.
Very nice summary. It’s hard to believe we have over a month before the next contest. If you think conjecture and estimation are rampant now, wait about two weeks! In the absence of any real results, there will be lots of stories about how delegates are awarded and about the polls for the upcoming states. It will be like the run-up to Iowa/New Hampshire all over again.
Tito:
Thanks. Trying to keep up with the numbers the MSM puts out could make your head explode.
I’m sure we will see mud slinging and finger pointing for the next few weeks and delegate numbers continually revised.
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